People are always going to back those they are familiar with... human nature. Xenforo has a long way to go before it becomes a viable competitor to VB or IPB IMHO. Already a majority seem not likely to transition to xenforo because it will only be a forum release. Yes, new product, it all takes time, but seriously, bridging is for amateurs, it is unreliable and buggy at best, it creates dual styling requirements and other integration issues. A forum by itself is a useless product nowadays and more and more sites are progressively shifting away from that model, hence the demands on both VB and IPB to produce a core product that integrates with other solutions without conflict. A forum used to be a standalone website, but more are shifting away from that age old philosophy. Either software changes with the web or it gets left behind. Xenforo will appeal to those who are waiting on 3.x for a speedy solution. If 4.1 doesn't solve that solution for them, some may shift to xenforo. Some have already made-up their mind to shift. Of the poll I read, only about 40% of voters had conclusively decided to migrate, and that was of a 109 voters, so around 40 people is not exactly damaging stuff to VB or IPB from a poll. Many have stated their existing vb installs will remain as is, and they will give the new one a trial on a new project... nothing really damaging overall from what I have ascertained from reading.
The simple fact though is that xenforo is a newcomer and it will take years for it to establish itself as a solid competitor to VB & IPB. Only those truly disgruntled persons who also followed Kier and Mike are going to immediately shift, anyone else is going to weigh up all factors. Some have shifted to IPB, some don't like IPB after they shifted and are waiting on VB to improve its game... the list goes on. Some admins are going to get quite a shock at the same time if they have established forums, being that many are making decisions that their users may just not like. Unless you run the only forum of its type in the world, they will shift or simply stop using the site if you piss them off.
I have seen plenty of major forums for their topic just die because of administrators shift in attitude or priorities, design, policies and more. What goes up will always come down, its just a matter of for how long each way.
The simple fact though is that xenforo is a newcomer and it will take years for it to establish itself as a solid competitor to VB & IPB. Only those truly disgruntled persons who also followed Kier and Mike are going to immediately shift, anyone else is going to weigh up all factors. Some have shifted to IPB, some don't like IPB after they shifted and are waiting on VB to improve its game... the list goes on. Some admins are going to get quite a shock at the same time if they have established forums, being that many are making decisions that their users may just not like. Unless you run the only forum of its type in the world, they will shift or simply stop using the site if you piss them off.
I have seen plenty of major forums for their topic just die because of administrators shift in attitude or priorities, design, policies and more. What goes up will always come down, its just a matter of for how long each way.
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